April 2, 2010

RLYW's Season Simulations

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog plays the 2010 season 100,000 times in each of five simulation programs (and offers the usual wheelbarrow of caveats).

Marcel
          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees 97.1 64.9 49.4% 20.3% -5.9 -17 -24
Rays 89.6 72.4 23.4% 19.7% 5.6 13 -29
Red Sox 89.1 72.9 22.5% 19.6% -5.9 -52 -9
(W+/-, RS+/-, RA+/-: 2010 projected wins, runs scored, and runs allowed, respectively, minus 2009 actual totals. So Marcel projects the Red Sox to win almost six fewer games than in 2009, while scoring 52 fewer runs and allowing 9 fewer runs.)

CHONE
          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees 95.2 66.8 38.1% 22.9% -7.8 -13 - 6
Red Sox 93.8 68.2 35.7% 20.3% -1.2 -50 -46
Rays 87.2 74.8 19.1% 16.5% 3.2 12 -10
Oliver
          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees 98.7 63.3 44.2% 25.4% -4.3 0 -38
Red Sox 94.3 67.7 29.3% 23.7% -0.7 -66 -68
Rays 92.0 70.0 23.9% 22.0% 8.0 13 -55
PECOTA
          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Red Sox 92.3 69.7 32.9% 20.1% -2.7 -39 -27
Rays 91.7 70.3 31.3% 19.3% 7.7 15 -48
Yankees 90.4 71.6 27.7% 19.4% -12.6 -38 19
CAIRO
          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees 97.7 64.3 41.1% 24.1% -5.3 -34 -45
Rays 94.2 67.8 29.5% 24.4% 10.2 -20 -99
Red Sox 93.9 68.1 27.6% 24.6% -1.1 -48 -51
Overall
          W     L     DIV    WC    W+/-   RS+/-  RA+/-
Yankees 96.1 65.9 40.7% 22.3% -6.9 -20 -19
Red Sox 92.9 69.1 30.3% 22.7% -2.1 -51 -40
Rays 91.2 70.8 25.4% 20.7% 7.2 7 -48
PECOTA projects the Red Sox as East winners -- while still seeing them as three games worse than 2009 -- but that is more due to a huge drop-off from Yankees. Also, its data is only as of February 15. And just about everyone has the Rays (19 GB) back in the fight.

RLYW likes pie charts:
SG says the Yankees' usual risk is "their continued reliance on players in their mid 30s and their ability to both stay healthy and be productive" -- Posada is 38, Jeter turns 36 in June, and Rivera is 40 -- but "that's generally worked out pretty well most of the time".

3 comments:

Zenslinger said...

It's interesting to add up the Div% and WC% and assess the projection based on that number (i.e., chance to make the playoffs) rather than the average win total, which creates a reaction of "We [win/lose]!"

Zenslinger said...

HH - 6IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB - yay.

Patrick said...

Extra Bases blog has a video of top red sox moments, that's 3:20 long. It's pretty cool, but there isn't any Manny at all!

I think the Manny double play high five would make it, not to mention the '07 ALDS BOMB!